Andrey V. Borovskiy, Andrey A. Yumenchuk

Baikal state university

The authors propose a method for simulating daily electrical load schedules in the residential sector based on the theory of random pulses combined with the convolution theory. The objective is to develop a model that takes into account both the random moment of pulse occurrence and its random duration and amplitude. Earlier models based on the convolution of the column-type energy consumption function described by the difference between two Heaviside functions with the probability density of the normal distribution for shifts in the time of switching on household appliances took into account only one random parameter. The fundamental difference of the model proposed in the article is that it takes into account three parameters characterizing each individual electrical load pulse. This allows, when simulating energy consumption of residential buildings, to obtain results that are much closer to the actual values of consumed power, and also to a greater extent correspond to the real dynamics of growth and decline in electricity consumption levels. The authors conduct a simulation modeling of the energy consumption of a small settlement and compare it with the actual energy consumption of a village of comparable size. The feasibility of applying the model to cases with special infrastructural conditions, such as the lack of central heating and water supply, is being tested. Among other things, the possibility of obtaining an optimal modeling result is being tested, taking into account different categories of consumers, such as working and non-working citizens. The possibility of transferring part of the load, which is not typical for night time, to other periods of the day, and the effect of transferring this load on the accuracy of the result are analyzed. Based on the results of the work, the advantages of the developed model are described and the conclusion is made about the possibility of its application in a wide range of tasks.

stochastic energy consumption models, random pulses, theory of convolutions, simulation, daily energy consumption schedule