Aleksei G. Massel, Timur G. Mamedov

Melentiev energy systems institute SB RAS

The article discusses the methodology of integrating cognitive and mathematical modeling to analyze the directions of development of the fuel and energy complex (fuel and energy complex) from the perspective of energy security. The proposed approach makes it possible to formalize and automate the process of transition from a qualitative analysis of threats and countermeasures to a quantitative assessment of their impact on the fuel and energy sector using optimization models. The methodology is based on the use of ontologies to structure domain knowledge, the construction of cognitive maps to visualize cause-and-effect relationships, and the development of relational databases to integrate semantic and mathematical models. The application of this approach is demonstrated by the example of a computational experiment involving threat modeling and evaluation of the effectiveness of energy security strategies. The results of the study can be used to make managerial decisions in conditions of uncertainty and crisis scenarios.

cognitive modeling, energy security, fuel and energy complex, ontologies, computational experiment, optimization models