• Nikita A. Sidorenko, Saint Petersburg State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering (Saint Petersburg, Russia)
• Olga N. Yarkova, Saint Petersburg State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering (Saint Petersburg, Russia)

This article is devoted to the development of mathematical tools that allow for the justification of strategic risk management decisions when implementing a construction plan within the established time frame. The process of risk management in the construction industry requires construction companies to adapt to modern realities and implement modern risk management systems for the successful implementation of construction projects. One of the most important indicators of project implementation effectiveness is the compliance of the construction project implementation deadline with the planned values. It is important to correctly assess the construction deadlines, taking into account the risks affecting the project implementation. The purpose of the work is to develop tools that allow modeling the duration of a construction project implementation under risk conditions. The paper analyzes existing approaches to risk management in construction projects and proposes a methodology for developing a risk management strategy, tested on the example of the construction of a typical residential building. For the project under consideration, key risks affecting the duration of construction have been identified. An example of the formation of a matrix of controllable parameters is shown. A method for constructing a game matrix based on a network graph of the construction plan for given player and nature strategies is described: the duration of work is simulated using the Monte Carlo method, and a probability distribution of the project completion time is obtained; the possibility of reducing the computational complexity of the algorithm by approximating a series of game matrix values using the least squares method is shown; the game matrix is constructed, for example, based on the characteristics of the probability distribution “construction period with a given probability (reliability)”, and a decision-making strategy based on Laplace's principle is defined. The application of the developed toolkit for assessing the risks of project failure within the established deadlines will allow for effective risk management in construction projects. The proposed approach may be of high practical significance in the implementation of construction projects and can be integrated into the risk management system at various stages of the construction project life cycle.

risk management, statistical modeling, game theory, risk-oriented approach, construction projects

2026-03-05