APPLICATION OF INTELLECTUAL METHODS FOR MODELING OF THE INFLUENCE OF NEW FACTORS OF ENERGY SECTOR DEVELOPMENT ON ELECTRICITY DEMAND
Elena V. Galperova, Vasiliy I. Galperov, Vadim I. Loktionov, Nadezhda N. Makagonova
Melentiev Energy Systems Institute Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Long-term forecasting of energy demand is the first and an important stage in the development of regional and national energy strategies and policies. Changes in the conditions of future energy development by spreading smart grid impose new requirements on the methodology of energy demand forecasting. Consumers are important component of the Smart Grid concept. In future consumers as equal energy market participants can form demand and prices and influence on level of energy system adaptability. Urgent task is to estimate the impact of consumer behavior on prospective electricity demand in a regional power system. The use of semantic approach allows us to overcome the difficulties in modeling the impact of consumer behavior that are associated with high uncertainty and impossibility to formalize grid-consumer interconnections. The developed algorithm and models based on the agent approach make it possible to assess the possibilities and the strength of consumer behavior effect on the structure and operating conditions of the regional power grid.
controlled-load consumer, semantic approach, agent-based modeling, electricity demand, ontology, cognitive model, price