THE APPLICATION OF SINGLE DYNAMIC MODEL TO FORECAST ENERGY AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AT THE NATIONAL AND REGIONAL LEVELS
Gleb V. Agafonov
Melentiev Energy Systems Institute Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences
The paper presents the testing results of a new approach to the modeling of interrelations between energy industry and economy with the use of the theory of systems in long-term forecasting of Russia’s national economy. The authors briefly describe the model, give a scheme of interrelations, specify the sequence of model calculations, and share the experience of the model development based on the aggregate representation of Russia’s national economy. The main results of the model testing concern the efficiency of the model. Also, the possibilities of using the developed approach to the modeling of the economies of certain regions and territories are assessed, and the requirements for the initial statistical data necessary for the construction of the models are formulated.
the theory of systems, economic complexes, forecast indicators, Gross Domestic Product, investment policy