METHOD AND MODELS FOR ESTIMATING THE INFLUENCE OF DISTRIBUTED GENERATION DEVELOPMENT ON ELECTRICITY DEMAND AND PRICE IN A REGION
Elena V. Galperova
Melentiev Energy Systems Institute SB RAS
The relevance of the article is due to the transition of energy to the path of intellectual development. One of the characteristics of this transition is the broadening of the prospects for decentralized electricity generation. Under the new conditions, a consumer has the opportunity to change his energy consumption depending on the cost of energy resources, to have his own installations for the production and / or storage of electricity. The article briefly presents the features of the use and technology of distributed generation (DG) energy in certain sectors of the economy (industry, residential and commercial sectors, transport). Some methods of determining the prospective values of the power of the RG at consumers are given. An approach to modeling and assessing the impact of the scale of distributed generation on the long-term development of regional power supply systems is proposed. A distinctive feature of the approach is the use of the previously developed stochastic optimization model of the unified power system of the macroregion as a basis for the development of its regional modification and a source of forecast information on the conditions for the development of the regional power system. Of course, the proposed approach gives only a rough estimate, but it allows us to outline a promising range of changes in the cost and demand for electricity in the region under different options for the development of the RG.
forecasting, distributed generation, consumers, energy carriers, demand, fuel and energy complex, electricity, Monte Carlo, optimization, uncertainty.