Anna K. Kuklina

Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences,

The article describes an economic and mathematical model for forecasting global energy demand in the segment of water transport with specialization by countries, regions and categories of vessels. The model combines various approaches to forecasting and modeling, including using regression analysis methods, and generates demand forecasting based on the revealed stable correlations between the energy intensity of water transport and economic and demographic indicators. In addition, the model implements modeling of the predicted inter-fuel transition from traditional oil fuels to alternative fuels, taking into account the cost of ownership of vessels with different types of fuel, emission prices and other parameters. The key difference between the developed model and existing analogues is the ability to calculate the entire global demand for marine fuel by large aggregate indicators (a significant part of the existing models are designed exclusively for calculating the fuel demand from one vessel, the closest analogue is the IEA model). The methodology developed at ERI RAS, based on the establishment of statistical links with the technical characteristics of water transport in the context of ship categories, allows not only to calculate the forecast for several years ahead, but also to assess the prospects of using alternative fuels under current environmental requirements. The results of calculations obtained using this model may be of interest to scientific organizations, shipowners and manufacturers of marine fuel.

inter-fuel competition, water transport, forecasting, fuel consumption