Volume №1(29) / 2023

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Articles in journal

1. Mathematical interpretation of transcendental analytics and metatheory of scientific knowledge (с. 5-22)
Aleksander K. Cherkashin, V.B. Sochava Institute of Geography SB RAS

Different methods of Kant's philosophical system are studied from the standpoint of mathematical and geographical sciences. This system is considered as part of the meta-theoretical approach, represented by means of methodological, mathematical and statistical analysis. The procedures of vector stratification (bundle) of the categorical feature space on manifolds developed in differential geometry are used as a model of transcendental analytics. Vector bundle algebra models the procedures of transcendental dialectical logic in the form of triadic systems of knowledge organization. The observed reality is described in terms of coordinate space. A priori knowledge is represented by a manifold, on which the tangent bundle of space into a system of independent layers as opposites is carried out. The bundle layers represent the laws of pure absolute knowledge, excluding the conventions of cognition of reality. The universal equations of these relations are derived, and examples of the application of these equations and their relations for the analysis of statistical data and the creation of system theories are presented. It is assumed that the joint work of philosophers, mathematicians and geographers will make it possible to coordinate transcendental concepts and laws to create a united field of meta-theoretical research.

Keywords: Transcendental analytics, fibration procedures, spatial manifolds, triadic schemes, dialectical logic, statistical analysis, metatheoretical knowledge, general theory of systems, rules of inference
2. Using the Monte - Carlo method and genetic programming to obtain a mathematical model of the method of evolutionary matching of solutions (с. 23-32)
Vladislav I. Protasov, Zinaida E. Potapova, Roman O. Mirakhmedov, Vladislav A. Klimenko, Moscow Aviation Institute (National University), Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (National University)

Abstract. The paper discusses a new decision-making method - the method of evolutionary decision matching, which has been developed over a number of years at the Moscow Aviation Institute. The theoretical substantiation of the method is given, using the Georg Rasch model and the Condorcet jury theorem. The method is based on the procedure of evolutionary coordination of the solution, built on the basis of genetic algorithms. To build a mathematical model of the method, genetic programming is used. The training sample was obtained based on calculations using the Monte Carlo model and a computer model of the evolutionary decision matching method. The analysis of the mathematical model showed a significant decrease in the probability of making mistakes when solving problems for any difficulty values.

Keywords: solution matching, problem difficulty, Rasch model, Condorcet theorem, genetic algorithms, genetic algorithms, error reduction
3. Model and algorithms for detecting objects in an image using a local feature description (с. 33-43)
Vasily E. Gai, Natalia A. Domnina, Roman O. Barinov, Igor V. Polyakov, Vladimir A. Golubenko, Georgy D. Kuznetsov, Nizhny Novgorod State Technical University

Abstract. The paper proposes an object detection method based on the theory of active perception. The theory of active perception provides an opportunity for implementation of pre-processing and feature description stages. The region feature descriptors consisting of spectral coefficients of U-transformation allows pne to identify regions with brightness variations. To designate a region as key, that is containing brightness differences corresponding to the object contour, a coefficient is introduced, which in combination with maximum RMS results in a unique threshold for each image. To achieve invariance to rotation and scale, the template image is subjected to scale and rotation transformations. Localization of the target object is done using the k-means method. For testing, images from the ALOI database, as well as their altered copies (multiple target objects in the image under study, images with superimposed noise) were used. For each image type, the results of the proposed method were compared with the scale-invariant feature transform method. The parameters resulting in the highest accuracy for the proposed object detection method were proposed for analysis. On noisy images, accuracy of the proposed method increased by 30% compared to the existing method. With more than one target object present on the test image, the proposed method was able to detect all target objects with an accuracy of about 96%.

Keywords: image processing, object detection, theory of active perception
4. Mathematical modeling and numerical analysis of the influence in the thickness blades on the durability of power turbomachines (с. 44-53)
Oleg V. Repetckii, Dinh Cuong Hoang, Irkutsk State Agrarian University named after A.A. Ezhevsky

This article is devoted to computer modeling and numerical analysis of the change in the thickness blades to study the effect of intentional mistuning on the durability wheels of power turbomachines. The object of the study is a radial wheel with 10 blades manufactured by Schiele (Germany), which specializes in the production aggregates for the chemical industry and ventilation equipment. The finite element method was used the TET10 finite element from the ANSYS WORKBENCH program. Five options in this paper have been provided for running mistuned wheels that can give accurate predictive distributions for forced response, mistuned wheel performance and resource estimation in cyclic symmetrical systems. According to the results of the study, two of the five options showed an increase in the value of the number of cycles to destruction wheels, the minimum percentage change in the mass and natural frequencies of the radial wheel. The obtained calculations make it possible to significantly reduce the volume of expensive experimental studies and reduce the time for designing new machines according to the criteria of efficiency, reliability, technology and resource saving of highly loaded aggregates.

Keywords: durability, finite element method, mathematical models, intentional mistuning, radial wheel, turbomachines
5. Methodology for forecasting marine fuel consumption taking into account inter- fuel competition (с. 54-63)
Anna K. Kuklina, Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences,

The article describes an economic and mathematical model for forecasting global energy demand in the segment of water transport with specialization by countries, regions and categories of vessels. The model combines various approaches to forecasting and modeling, including using regression analysis methods, and generates demand forecasting based on the revealed stable correlations between the energy intensity of water transport and economic and demographic indicators. In addition, the model implements modeling of the predicted inter-fuel transition from traditional oil fuels to alternative fuels, taking into account the cost of ownership of vessels with different types of fuel, emission prices and other parameters. The key difference between the developed model and existing analogues is the ability to calculate the entire global demand for marine fuel by large aggregate indicators (a significant part of the existing models are designed exclusively for calculating the fuel demand from one vessel, the closest analogue is the IEA model). The methodology developed at ERI RAS, based on the establishment of statistical links with the technical characteristics of water transport in the context of ship categories, allows not only to calculate the forecast for several years ahead, but also to assess the prospects of using alternative fuels under current environmental requirements. The results of calculations obtained using this model may be of interest to scientific organizations, shipowners and manufacturers of marine fuel.

Keywords: inter-fuel competition, water transport, forecasting, fuel consumption
6. Experimental stand for detecting defects in air ducts (с. 64-72)
Lyudmila A. Korobova, Irina A. Matytsina, Vitaly A. Kalugin, Voronezh State University of Engineering Technologies

When studying the functioning of technological objects, it is impossible to create a real emergency situation that provides information about the presence of a defect. For this purpose, physical modeling of the air duct system was applied. The physical model is presented in the form of an experimental stand. The article provides a description of the installation, which allows you to monitor the functioning of a closed air duct system under various external influences: when changing the dynamic characteristics of the working environment; when various types of defects appear, etc. The installation also allows you to choose how these changes are recorded. Functionally, the experimental stand was created as close as possible to real conditions. To detect damage to the air circuit, integration of technical developments with the method of multiple signal classification (MUSIC) was performed. The developed stand opens up opportunities for practical experiments and direct obtaining of experimental data to identify defects in the air duct.

Keywords: physical modeling, experimental stand, piping system, air duct, defect, acoustic emission
7. Modelling of an integrated photovoltaic system in the conditions of development of private microgeneration (с. 73-85)
Ilia A. Maltsev, Dmitriy N. Karamov, Melentiev Energy Systems Institute of Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk National Research Technical University

The article presents the results of a detailed practical study of the legislative framework of the Russian Federation (at the current moment of its implementation) on the issue of “development of microgeneration”. A study has been carried out, including the modeling of a power supply system built on the basis of a private household photovoltaic system without the use of energy storage devices. Modeling is carried out using a computer program that takes into account the climatic conditions of the Irkutsk region. Based on the data obtained, recommendations are given for improving the current regulatory legal acts of the legislation of the Russian Federation with subsequent proposals for increasing the effectiveness of stimulating the development of the “microgeneration” direction in Russia.

Keywords: microgeneration, renewable energy sources, feed in tariff, photovoltaic system, energy system model
8. Analysis of electricity intensity of GDP of the Republic of Belarus in the field of electricity consumption forecasting (с. 86-98)
Tatsiana G. Zorina, Olga I. Yurkevich, Institute of Power Engineering of NAS of Belarus, Belarus State Economic University

The article analyzes the electricity intensity of the GDP of the Republic of Belarus: the dynamics was studied taking into account different approaches to the reflection of indicators, a comparison with the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (hereinafter - EAEU) was carried out, the analysis by sectors of the economy and regions of the Republic was conducted, the impact of changes in electricity tariffs and electricity consumption of the population was studied, the factors influencing the change in the electricity intensity of GDP were estimated. The analysis allowed to make conclusions about essential interrelation between the volume of GDP and electricity consumption, to determine the index of energy elasticity, on the basis of which it is possible to forecast the change of electricity consumption. It was noted that with a comparable level of electricity intensity, the Republic of Belarus has the highest level of tariffs compared to the EEU and European Union countries, which has a significant impact on the competitiveness of the national economy. It was determined that the highest level of electricity intensity in the Republic can be noted in the areas where most of the industrial production is located, the highest electricity intensity is characterized by the mining industry. It was noted that there is no direct correlation between the tariff and the volume of electric power consumption, with a general trend towards the growth of electric power consumption by organizations with a decrease in the tariff level, indicating the absence of competition on the electric power market in the republic. At the same time the dependence between these indicators for separate groups of consumers was determined, regression models of influence of tariff for electric power on the volume of its consumption were built for these groups of consumers. The research carried out in the article leads to the conclusion that increasing the volume of GDP is an effective mechanism to increase electricity consumption, which is very relevant taking into account the need to increase the volume of electricity consumption under the conditions of integration of BelNPP into the energy system of the Republic of Belarus.

Keywords: electricity intensity of GDP, electric power industry, electricity consumption, competitiveness of the national economy, energy industry of Belarus
9. Risks and threats to energy security of the Republic of Belarus (с. 99-110)
Vasiliy V. Panasyuk, Academy of Public Administration under the President of the Republic of Belarus,

The article considers the threats and risks to the energy security of the Republic of Belarus, taking into account their significance at all stages of energy production, with their classification into risks of an industrial, financial and informational nature. In this study, the basis for assessing the level of threats was a written expert survey of specialists from the regional energy systems of the country. Specialists ranked the types of risks (production, financial, informational) and specific risks that belong to the corresponding type at each stage of energy production.

Keywords: energy system, energy security, expert survey, risk classification, risk ranking
10. Technology for assessing environmental pollution by energy facilities with the use of information and computing system WICS (с. 111-122)
Vladimir R. Kuzmin, Melentiev Energy Systems Institute SB RAS

The article considers the development of technology for assessing environmental pollution by energy facilities using the information and computing system (ICS) WICS, based on the author's methodological approach and tools. The proposed original algorithm for post-processing the results of calculating the spreading of pollutants in the atmospheric air is described. The IS EDC subsystem is presented, designed to assess the economic damage to the environment caused by emissions of energy facilities into the atmosphere. The article also describes the results of the development of the tools for visualizing the results obtained built into the ICS WICS.

Keywords: information and computing system, pollution impact assessment, environment, energy facilities
11. Development of a methodological approach to forecasting the plastics market, taking into account the formation of the “circular economy” of the industry (с. 123-134)
Nikita O. Kapustin, Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences

The issue of combating plastic pollution in recent years has come to the forefront of the environmental protection agenda in many of the world’s countries. The answer to it should be the creation of a “circular plastics economy”, which involves a radical change in the production chains of the plastics industry with the transition from fossil hydrocarbons feedstock to the recycling and reuse of polymer waste and is mentioned in the relevant legislations of the European Union, USA, Canada and some other countries. This paper examines the options for the development of the "circularity" of the plastic industry, as well as methodological approaches for forecasting the plastics market and demand for conventional and new types of feedstock for polymer production in the context of industry changes. A modeling complex for analyzing and forecasting the performance of the global plastic industry is proposed, which has a wide range of functions and is suitable for conducting a diverse range of studies of the industry.

Keywords: plastics industry, modelling, forecasting, circular plastics
12. The task of forming a system of innovative development of the enterprise taking into account innovative business processes (с. 135-148)
Julia T. Mansurova, Anna V. Startseva, Ufa University of Science and Technology

Innovative development plays an important role in the successful operation of enterprises at the present time. However, in order to be competitive, it is necessary not only to introduce new technologies, but also to form an innovative business process. The solution of the problem of forming the system of innovative development of the enterprise, taking into account innovative business processes, is becoming more and more relevant. In this paper, the main stages of the formation of an innovative business process with the help of fuzzy sets are considered, the formulation, formalization and implementation of the task of managing the innovative development of an enterprise on the basis of innovative business processes is carried out. Special attention is paid to the definition of criteria-objectives of the model construction and their quantitative assessments, which allow to increase the efficiency of innovative development of the enterprise. The results of the study can be used by enterprises of various sectors of the economy in solving the tasks of managing innovative development and increasing competitiveness in the market. Thus, this work contributes to the development of the theory and practice of management of innovative development of enterprises, taking into account innovative business processes, offers new approaches and techniques, and also reflects the relevance of this problem at the present time.

Keywords: innovative business process; competitiveness; innovative development of the enterprise
13. Approach to protecting cyber-physical system management interfaces from accessibility threats (с. 149-157)
Andrey Yu. Iskhakov, Elena F. Jharko, V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of Russian Academy of Sciences

The need to develop existing approaches and scientific and technical solutions in the field of information security is caused by the rapid development of cyber-physical systems that require adaptation of protection mechanisms to new architectures, technical limitations and features of operation. One of the important, but poorly considered in the world literature areas of protection of cyber-physical systems, are the issues of building effective protectors that mitigate threats to the accessibility of interfaces at the application level. Disruption of the availability of control subsystems for the objects in question can lead to tragic consequences, so a comprehensive analysis and modernization of approaches to protect them from DDoS attacks is already required. This study proposes an approach to protecting cyber-physical system control interfaces from external influences aimed at disrupting accessibility due to the lack of technical capability to echelle the protection of application software. As the object of the cyber-physical system, a virtual polygon of unmanned vehicles was used. An analysis of applicability of existing approaches to protection against application layer attacks for the selected class of objects is given, an adapted approach to object protection is proposed and its effectiveness is investigated.

Keywords: cyber-physical systems, availability disruption, information security, attacks, unmanned vehicles
14. Assessment of the state of an integrated information security system based on ontologies (с. 158-177)
Pavel N. Nasedkin, Leonid V. Arshinskiy, Irkutsk State Transport University

One of the problems of organizing an information security system is to evaluate the functionality of the system as a whole. Approaches based on aggregated estimation can be used to solve such problems. Currently, such estimates are usually based on weighted averages, which does not allow modeling the concept of a key component of the system, that is, one whose loss leads to the non-functionality of the system as a whole or its individual subsystems. The paper shows an approach to the aggregated evaluation of the subsystem of software and technical solutions of the enterprise's integrated information security system based on the method of logical-axiological evaluation. A necessary part of such an assessment is the ontological modeling of the system by means of light ontologies reflecting the relationships between the components. Ontologies are constructed and an example of calculation for one of the subsystems is given.

Keywords: information security, integrated information security system, aggregated assessment, logical- axiological approach, attached inference
15. Processing of semi-structured text data for use in data analysis models (с. 178-189)
Elena A. Makarova, Bryansk State Technical University

In creating data analysis models, it is often advisable to use data of various forms and structures in them - numerical, categorical, textual, video, etc. The article studies the influence of text data without a clear structure on the quality of analysis models, reveals the dependence of the accuracy of analysis models on the methods used for processing semi-structured text data. A model for intelligent processing of semi-structured text data is described, which includes visualization methods and data transformation algorithms proposed by the author in previous works. A modification of the algorithm for the transformation of erroneous spellings, based on the use of vector word representation models, is proposed. An experiment was conducted on the use of data of different structures in the framework of solving the problem of classifying resumes of applicants. An example of processing semi-structured text data for solving the problem of classifying resumes of applicants according to their professions is given. The stages of building a data mining model are described, including exploratory analysis, data extraction and transformation. Problems inherent in the data used in the experiment are described, such as: spelling errors, the use of different terminology to describe the same concepts, etc. The accuracy of applying classification models based on data processed in various ways is calculated. Experiments have shown that the use of semi-structured data for this task almost does not increase the accuracy of the model if they are used without preliminary processing and increases the classification accuracy by several percent if they are correctly processed.

Keywords: semi-structured text data, data analysis, data classification, CV analysis
16. Intelligent analysis of educational data of the educational discipline using the Orange program (с. 190-200)
Olga I. Kitaeva, Irkutsk National Research Technical University

The article considers the concept of intellectual analysis of educational data and analyzes the educational data of the academic discipline of the university. The relevance of the topic is due to the need to improve the quality of the educational process. The main method is to obtain intellectually improved visual forms of data for a more effective understanding of the patterns hidden in them. The paper considers the possibilities of using the open source software product "Orange" for the implementation of data mining for the current and intermediate certification of bachelor students in the academic discipline “Operations Research”. As a result of the analysis, problems were identified in the process of mastering the discipline and ways to solve them were proposed.

Keywords: intellectual analysis of educational data, Orange, analysis of current student performance, visualization